Pink Quote , informally known as the Pink Sheets , is an electronic quotation system operated by Pink OTC Markets that displays quotes from broker-dealers for many over-the-counter securities. Market makers and other brokers can use Pink Quote to publish their bid and ask quotation prices. Starting in 1913, and prior to the creation of the electronic system in 2000, these quotes were printed on pink colored paper by the National Quotation Bureau. The term Pink Sheets is also used to refer to a market tier within the current Pink Quote system. 

The Pink Sheets is not a stock exchange. To be quoted in the Pink Sheets, companies do not need to fulfill any requirements (e.g. filing financial statements with the SEC). With the exception of foreign issuers, mostly represented by ADRs, the companies quoted in the Pink Sheets tend to be closely held, extremely small, or thinly traded. Most do not meet the minimum U.S. listing requirements for trading on a stock exchange such as the New York Stock Exchange. Many of these companies do not file periodic reports or audited financial statements with the SEC, making it very difficult for investors to find reliable, unbiased information about those companies.

For these reasons the SEC views companies listed on Pink Sheets as “among the most risky investments” and advises potential investors to heavily research the companies in which they plan to invest.

Buying Pink Sheets shares is supposed to be difficult. Broker-dealers are enjoined to weed-out unsophisticated investors who may get an e-mail or word-of-mouth tip about a small stock. Many Pink Sheets stocks may only be registered for sale in one state so that the only way to purchase the stock is to make a DRIP/business/unsolicited/accredited or other sophisticated form of investment. Many registered representatives do not even know how or if they can sell them. 

OTCQX market tier

OTCQX is a premium market tier offered by Pink OTC Markets that aims to raise the visibility of OTC-traded companies that, although not traded on a stock exchange, have operating businesses and provide substantial disclosure to the marketplace. The Pink Sheets has provided online stock tracking for many companies in its long history of online stock trading . Similar to companies quoted on the Pink Sheets, OTCQX companies are not required to be fully SEC reporting companies (i.e. current with all SEC filings). Despite this, OTCQX companies must provide audited financials and certain disclosures to Pink OTC Markets.

OTCQX has two subcategories, PremierQX , the highest tier, and PrimeQX for companies that are too small for PremierQX, but otherwise meet the reporting requirements. The two categories are further differentiated into International and Domestic (US) companies.

Pink Sheets market tier

Effective August 1 , 2007, all Pink Sheets traded companies that are not able or willing to meet the standards of OTCQX will be placed in one of the following disclosure categories: Current Information, Limited Information or No Information. This categorization system was designed to increase the amount of information available in all Pink Sheets traded companies. However, these disclosure categories do not signify issuer quality or merit of any security. Categorization is based on the level and timeliness of a company’s disclosure and any category can include speculative, distressed, or questionable companies. Investors are encouraged to use caution when considering these companies for investment.

Current Information

Indicates reporting companies that submit filings to regulators with powers of review and that make the filings publicly available or non-reporting companies that make current information publicly available on the Pink Sheets News Service. The Current Information category is based on the level of disclosure and is not a designation of quality or investment risk. This category includes shell companies or development stage companies with little or no operations as well as companies without audited financial statements and as such should be considered extremely speculative by investors.

Limited Information

Is designed for companies with financial reporting problems, economic distress, or in bankruptcy to make the limited information they have publicly available. The Limited Information category also includes companies that may not be troubled, but are unwilling to meet Pink Sheets’ Guidelines for Providing Adequate Current Information. Companies in this category have limited financial information not older than six months available on the Pink Sheets News Service or have made a filing on the SEC’s EDGAR system in the previous six months.

No Information

Indicates companies that are not able or willing to provide disclosure to the public markets – either to a regulator, a stock exchange or Pink Sheets. Companies in this category do not make Current Information available via Pink Sheets News Service, or if they do, the available information is older than six months. This category includes defunct companies that have ceased operations as well as ‘dark’ companies with questionable management and market disclosure practices. Publicly traded companies that are not willing to provide information to investors should be treated with suspicion and their securities should be considered highly risky.

Caveat Emptor – Buyer Beware

There is a public interest concern associated with the company. This may include a spam campaign, stock promotion or known investigation of fraudulent activity committed by the company or insiders. During a spam campaign, any stock that is not in the Current Information category will also have its quotes blocked on pinksheets.com.

OTCBB 

The OTC Bulletin Board (OTCBB) is a listing of securities similar to the Pink Sheets, but operated independently. Many OTCBB companies are also listed on the Pink Sheets.

Grey Market

Securities that are not listed on any stock exchange, the OTCBB, or the Pink Sheets are considered to be in the Grey Market. Transactions are processed independently and not centrally listed or quoted. Trades are reported to a Self Regulatory Organization (SRO) who then passes the data on to market data companies.

Commodity Trading

Online commodity trading transactions on the commodity exchanges fall into two broad categories: cash contracts and futures contracts. Accordingly, the commodity exchange may be a cash market or a futures market, or may combine both. The cash contracts for the purchase of commodities are those which call for payment of the full contract price, in cash, on delivery. Such contracts are also referred to as physical contracts, in the sense that they deal in actual or physical products. The cash or physical contracts may be sub-divided into two sub-classes: spot contracts and forward contracts.

Spot transactions are those cash contracts which involve the payment by the buyer and the delivery of the specified grade of goods by the seller immediately, or within a short time. These contracts relate to the purchase or sale of commodities on the spot. The essence of such contracts is the ready delivery and acceptance of the delivery of the goods sold. Forward dealings are those cash contracts made in the cash or physical market, which call for the delivery of goods and payment of the price after a specified period, on a fixed date.

As against cash contracts, which require the payment or cash against the physical delivery of goods immediately on the spot or after a specified period, a futures contract is a special type of agreement made strictly under the rules of a commodity exchange, which may or may not call for the actual delivery of goods and payment of price in cash on a future trade.

A future contract can be defined as a contract for the future delivery of some commodity without reference to specific lots, made under the rules of some commercial body, in a set form, by which the conditions as to unit of amount, the quality and time of delivery are stereotyped and only the determination of the total amounts and the price is left open to the contracting parties. 

Option Trading

By Rob Forbes

As the markets have crashed in every possible way in the last month, everyone has got burnt. Stocks have crashed by 40% on average, which means that lots of people got hit by more than 40%. Stock portfolios, retirement funds, mortgages all look disastrous, and no-one wants to hear “buy and hold” anymore. Overall trust in investing and the stock market is at an all time low.  Every investing strategy looks bad.  Or does it?

Options trading is a strategy that is not dependent on the market direction, and in fact does better in volatile markets. That is what makes now the best time to trade options.   So, why would you trade options?

Options trading does not need to be risky or a gamble. It is true that there are some people who do gamble with options, but they quickly lose their shirts and leave the field. Options trading gives you a wide range of strategies that have varieties of profit and risk potential. In fact, many strategies are significantly less risky than “buy-and-hold”, and most are significantly more profitable than just about any stock trading strategy that you can name.

When trading options, most of your portfolio is in cash for most of the time. In fact, even when you are actively trading, you can still have your whole portfolio in cash!

When trading options, your trades are by definition short term, and you do not need to hang around for months and months to see whether you make a profit or not.

Options work in ANY market – up, down, or stagnant.

Which strategies are best to use during a recession?

Despite the massive leverage and profit potential of buying and selling calls and puts, it can look too much like gambling. In fact, if you don’t have a watertight strategy, it can be extremely risky. That is why it better to look at other possibilities.

Selling credit spreads. This strategy can bring in 15-20% profit on your portfolio per month, with no cash outlay, although you do need to put up margin. You can start with $1,000, and the only technical knowledge that you need is to be able to run a simple trend analysis. No trade lasts longer than a month, and you have an 80% or better chance of winning your trade.

Selling naked puts. You effectively get paid to buy your favorite stock, or in other words, you can buy stocks at greatly discounted prices. Or you can treat them like credit spreads, and run trades every month in an upwardly trending market.

Selling covered calls. If you own a stock, you can sell a covered call on it every month. In a downward trending market, this helps you recoup your losses. In a stagnant market, it helps you reduce the net cost of your stock.  In an upward trending market, you can lock in your profits on a stock and move on.

These are all very low risk strategies, that can easily bring in a monthly income of at least 10-15% on your portfolio. You will not need to be glued to a computer screen day after day, and all three of these strategies can be accomplished with less than one hour per month in front of your computer. Each of these strategies takes advantage of time decay, the concept by which options lose value very quickly as their expiration date approaches.

There are other strategies such as Iron Condors, Straddles, Strangles and so on, which can be very effective, but none are as reliable nor as safe as these other three. In addition, they often incur higher brokerage fees.

Strategies such as DITM (Deep-in-the-Money) options trading can be useful if you favor a swing trading type stock strategy. You effectively buy stocks at about half price. Buying and selling calls and puts is hugely profitable, but highly risky. Both of these strategies are very susceptible to the effect of time decay.

An option is simply granting someone the right to buy or sell something in the future. In the case of Dow index futures options, when someone buys a Dow call option they are buying the right to purchase that underlying Dow future at a specific price, known as the “strike price,” at a future point in time, known as the “expiration date.” When an investor buys a put, they are essentially selling the market; a call essentially buys the market. Likewise, selling a put essentially buys the market; selling a call essentially sells the market.

Oil Future

With well over a century of steady usage of crude oil, it is fairly easy to predict some of the recurring trends in the rise and fall of crude oil future prices. What we have to do is simply employ the old rule of thumb that tells us there is nothing new under the sum and then apply that to projections on crude oil production and consumption. Here are some examples of changes that we can anticipate to occur right on schedule.

As the nation emerges from cold weather and reaches toward the summer months, more of us will be thinking about vacations to far away places, and maybe even some short trips to the beach if we live within a reasonable distance to the coastline. Past experience teaches us that we can expect an increase in crude oil future prices around the time that people begin to get serious about some holiday traveling. Everything from gasoline to airfare will increase around this time. At times, the increase is attributed to slow production due to some production facilities being understaffed, while at other times there is speculation about crude oil being hoarded by the this nation or that. Regardless of the reason, there is always at least once factor that leads to an increase in prices as the weather begins to warm. 

Just as predictably, any occurrence of natural disasters during the summer months will bring about increase in petroleum prices. Tornadoes and hurricanes that impact the production ability of offshore rigs and onshore processing plants will surely result in prices going up, even if people are not really in a good position to handle the increase. Keep your bicycle tires pumped up just in case.

As we begin to go into the autumn of the year, we will see crude oil future prices begin to level off and perhaps even dip a bit. It is usually not a god idea to get too excited with any significant change we see, as it will most likely be short lived. From the decrease, we can expect a small rebound to a slightly higher price, which will most likely be fairly constant for the winter months, barring any type of major problem somewhere in the world.

Predicting crude oil future prices based on past experience is a fairly reliable way for the consumer to plan for any upcoming changes that may have to be made in order to accommodate the shift in pricing. Make sure you watch the current status of the prices, and let history be your guide in planning your upcoming budget. 

Types of Day Traders

There are two major types of day traders: institutional and retail.

An institutional day trader is a trader who works for financial institution. This type of trader has certain advantages over retail traders as he/she generally has access to more resources, tools, equipment, large amounts of capital and leverage, large availability of fresh fund inflows to trade continuously on the markets, dedicated and direct lines to data centers and exchanges, expensive and high-end trading and analytical software, support teams to help, and more. All these advantages give them certain edges over retail day traders.

A retail day trader is a trader who works for himself, or in partnership with a few other traders. A retail trader generally trades with his own capital, though he may also trade with other people’s money. Law has restricted the amount of other people’s money a retail trader can manage. In the United States, day traders may not advertise as advisors or financial managers. Although not required, nearly all retail day traders use direct access brokers as they offer the fastest order entry and to the exchanges, as well as superior software trading platforms.

In the past, most day traders were institutional traders due to the huge advantages they had over retail traders. However, since the technology boom in the second half of the 1990s, advances in personal computing and communications technology, realized in the accessibility of powerful personal computers and the Internet, have brought fast online trading and powerful market analytical tools to the mainstream. Low, affordable commissions from discount brokers as well as regulation improvements in favor of retail traders have also helped level the trading playing field, making success as a retail trader a possibility for many and a reality for some.

E-Mini S&P, often abbreviated to “E-mini” and designated by the commodity ticker symbol ES, is a stock market index futures contract traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange‘s Globex electronic trading platform. The notional value of one contract is US$50 times the value of the S&P 500 stock index.

It was introduced by the CME in 1998 after the value of the existing S&P contract (then valued at $500 times the index, or over $500,000 at the time) became too large for many small traders. The E-Mini quickly became the most popular equity index futures contract in the world. The original (“big”) S&P contract was subsequently split 2:1, bringing it to $250 times the index. Hedge funds often prefer trading the E-Mini over the big S&P since the latter still uses the open outcry pit trading method, with its inherent delays, versus the all-electronic Globex system. The current average daily implied volume for the E-mini is over $140 billion, far exceeding the combined traded dollar volume of the underlying 500 stocks.

Following the success of this product, the exchange introduced the E-mini NASDAQ-100 contract, at one fifth of the original NASDAQ-100 index based contract, and many other “mini” products geared primarily towards small speculators, as opposed to large hedgers.

In June 2005 the exchange introduced a yet smaller product based on the S&P, with the underlying asset being 100 shares of the highly-popular SPDR Exchange-traded fund. However, due to the different regulatory requirements, the performance bond (or “margin“) required for one such contract is almost as high as that for the five times larger E-Mini contract. The product never became popular, with daily volumes rarely exceeding 10 contracts a day.

The E-Mini contract trades 23.5 hours a day, five days a week, on the March quarterly expiration cycle.

Stock Analysis Software

Stock analysis software works a lot like technical analysis software, it’s a program that helps you manage and control your money that you have invested in stock. There are many different kinds of stock analysis software out there and some can cost your thousands of dollars. You have to find a happy medium with the stock analysis software you choose can do the job you need it to and what your wallet can handle as well.

Once you have picked the right stock analysis software, its then time to know what exactly you are doing when using stock analysis software. Here are some different ways to navigate you through using stock analysis software.

Fundamental Analysis of Stocks, which is when the investors analyze stocks when considering the financial information of the companies that are releasing stocks. The most common form of Fundamental Analysis of Stocks found in stock analysis software is the CANSLIM method. The CANSLIM method is defined as the analyizing of stocks by looking into the companies that offer high buying demand and above average growth in earnings.

Technical Analysis of Stocks within the Stock Market, which is when investors study price activity of the stock market by way of using the quantitative techniques and also a variety of charts (line, bar, candlestick, etc.). The main purpose behind this technique is to predict overall price trends. This is the most used and most popular technique that stock analysis software has to offer, especially in this economy.

Up next is Index Method, which is when investors increase the value of their portfolios by create diverse investment plans of action as investment portfolios are weighted by the market capitalization. This form of stock analysis software, the investor finds ways to lower the risk of taxes, maximizing the trend of the general stock market, and also makes “outside the box” investment.

All this complex information may make a first time or novice investor a little wary. But that’s what stock analysis software is all about. Stock analysis software is very user friendly. The form of stock analysis software below may be the best for rookie investors.

Online stock market analysis, a very new age stock analysis software, will help to do the research and in turn helps stock decisions in an easy to follow and also logical manner. If an investor has always been confused by how to select certain stocks, understanding stock options, and also other securities, they you might not be doing the correct amount of analysis of the portfolio and overall average market trends. By doing analysis on the stock market, the businesses you have invested into, and also your stocks will be able to help determine whether it is time to buy, to sell, or hold it down.

In closing, here are some helpful tips when investing and using stock analysis software:

-Perform an in depth research companies and businesses before you buy into their stock,

- Be very careful where you get your advice, there are many people online that don’t know any more than you do.

-   Buy into companies and businesses that you trust, go with your first gut instinct

Stock Market Report … Trading low priced stocks from home

Profitable day traders recognize that trading low priced hot stocks is among the fastest & most effective ways to harvest BIG piles of cash in the stock market.

The problem is that if you don’t know what stocks to look for and how to approach them while limiting your risk, you won’t even get close to making some profits.

You don’t necessarily have to trade low priced hot stocks all the time. But you can learn how to take advantage of them when you encounter the best opportunities while at the same time limiting your risk.

If you want to learn how to trade and pick small cap stocks with momentum in a simple yet effective way every week, just log on to ProfitFromPennyStocks.com right now and discover what youve been missing.

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Just picture your self waking up EVERY morning fresh and confident knowing you can identify, validate and take advantage of great momentum trading opportunities that are capable of generating you very profitable results. 

Online Forex Trading

Online Forex Trading brokers are considered to be the middle man of the trading game. They are the ones who provide you with crucial information on you current line of business. You may have spent some quality time with your own forex trading business but the expertise that these professionals can provide you with is still exceptional. This is because they have everything that is necessary for your business to get boosted. They have the technical expertise, the forex acumen, and the networks to move around the forex market.

Here are some useful tips you can use to find forex trading brokers

Look online – These days, the foreign currency trading game has seen a lot of growth in the internet sector. Most people have discovered how transactions can be done much faster if its made through the internet. Just the same, expect forex brokers to ride on this promising bandwagon. Those considered to be experts in the said field would have taken advantage of the internet to promote themselves and their services in the form of blogs or online columns. The internet also allows you to make quick comparisons among different forex brokers.

Ask for references – Getting a forex broker is almost the same as finding an applicant to fit in a job you need to get accomplished. Credentials are crucial and you also need to have a way to assess if the person you are considering for the said work can indeed deliver some good results. The best way for you to be able to do that is to talk to their previous clients. Get in touch with their existing or past customers so you can have a clearer view and perspective on how it might be like to work with them. This is also a good way for you to identify if they have a clean record in conducting business transactions.

Get in touch with regulatory agencies – The forex market has plenty of government and non-government agencies which have their own policies that help develop and continue to sustain the market scene. The best you can do is to primarily coordinate with these people since they may have forex broker organizations wherein you can tap your possible forex partners. This helps ease up your background research process because the people you will get from these agencies are most probably certified to have clear professional records.

Trading platform to be used - You should also check out what type of trading platform is being used by the forex broker you wish to hire. The two most popular versions these days are the downloadable software and the web based application. If the forex broker uses a specific software, you should care to ask its specifics especially if you use one yourself. This will help smoothen out compatibility issues and make information dissemination much easier for both of you. Web based application are usually open source programs that are accessible when you go online. Forex trading brokers who use these might be able to give you better rate deals because most of these open source programs are free.

Automated forex trading is defined as the ability to trade forex with the help of a trading program or solution. Automated forex trading is done using robots which are created by high-level developers. Automated forex trading is one of the way to leverage due to. Automated forex trading is another option for many forex traders.

Forex markets provide multiple opportunities to trade and profit within a 24 hour period. Forex trading tools that deliver fast and accurate data in a timely manner is the key ingredient to trading success. Forex trading online can be challenge without the right tools that guide you to the right way. Forex forecasting is the key to profitable trade – Forex forecasting helps a trader predict price movements in the highly volatile forex market. Forex trading can be done at your convenience.

Trading this way is easily the fastest way to turn a profit but in the past, traders relied on a great deal of guesswork before algorithms, making trading much more risk prone without it.

Automated Forex trading is one of the leading methods of making money online, that is, if you have the best programs at your disposal and the right information, of course. Automated forex trading will allow foreign currency traders to be able to trade in real time. Automated trading makes possible for you to trade in different markets, and also in diverse time zones. Automated trading software allows you to cancel all open orders and flatten all positions automatically at the end of the day. Automated forex trading is done using robots which are created by high-level developers. Automated forex trading really favors day trading and swing trading as profiting from these trading styles require fast trading. Automated FOREX trading is exactly what it sounds like.

Online forex trading allows you to trade at your convenience – There was a time when forex trading was limited to banks and large financial institutions. Online Forex brokers will come with various trading platform software as well as tools to make trading easier on you. Online trading is not difficult to learn, the fact is when one using the foreign currency software, to trade online it becomes so easy. Online Forex Trading is Quickly Becoming a Booming Business Online Forex trading is more popular now that most everyone has access to a computer and internet. Online trading is the easy way to buy and sell shares from the comfort of your home.

Foreign Currency Trading is the world’s largest enterprise and the rise of the Internet allows anyone to trade and the rewards are great, but 95% of traders lose and in most cases is because they do not understand the facts closed …. Foreign exchange market operates 24 hours a day seven days a week.

Making Money On Forex Online Without Bank Wires Online has become a meeting place for most advantageous financial and Internet technologies. Making money from money you’ve already earned from your investments is known as ‘compounding interest’.

Automated FOREX trading is exactly what it sounds like. Automated forex trading is a relatively new concept that is rapidly growing in popularity among retail forex traders. Automated Forex Trading is an option to be availed by an investor in the international currency market. Automated Forex trading is where some or all of your Forex trades are decided by a computer program. 

Online Forex Trading Profits

Online Forex Trading is the short form for foreign exchange and makes up an exciting line of work that is increasing in fame. In foreign exchange, one currency of a nation is traded for another. The foreign exchange market place is one of the largest markets because foreign exchange transactions happen between big banks, central banks, government agencies, multinational corporations etcetera.

On an average, transactions of the volume of US $2 trillion take place globally day-after-day.

In addition to that the transaction volume in the derivatives market is 1.26 trillion, day-by-day. That shows the size of the market place and the potentiality it has for the players involved. Though retail traders who take part through brokers and banks form a small fraction of the total participants the Forex market holds a high potential of profit for the participants.

Online Forex Trading Videos

A Forex video training course is one of the most effective learning tools for enabling students to master the art of trading. As opposed to live seminars which are also more expensive, Forex training videos can be viewed at any convenient time and replayed again and again. There may be sections that warrant repeated viewing while other sections can be viewed briefly or skipped. The video format for learning has proven to be extremely effective for learning trading principles quickly.

Should You Learn Trading?

Learning Online Forex Trading is not that hard in that there are a lot of systematic courses conducted by many institutes/universities all over the world. When an entrepreneur commits to learn trading, she will be mainly exposed to two types of analysis. One is technical analysis and another is fundamental analysis.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the market-generated data utilized for forecasting price movements. Tools like price charts and graphs are being used to illustrate the concept. The forecasting is based on three postulates viz., the market data contains all the fundamentals, volatility of the market and market sentiments. The possible market trends are up, down and sideways. More often than not the market moves in predictable patterns. The ultimate aim of technical analysis is to unravel this pattern basing upon the past trends.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis assumes a country to be like company with economic reports that reveal the financial health of that countys currency. The value of a countrys currency depends upon the products and services it supplies to the international market. The more it supplies and is able to sell them the more of a demand is created for the currency because of its need by the purchasers of the product and services. Fundamental analysis takes into account the countrys potential to generate international trade. Fundamental analysis is found to be more effective when the learner uses the same judiciously. Learning the trade in these broad categories help the traders perform well in the market

Forex trade holds high prospects for profit as well as the potential for loss depending upon the traders skill and understanding of the market. Learning Forex trade provides that knowledge which should be analytically used for achieving better performance. The trader who has a more thorough understanding of the market has a distinct advantage and greater likelihood of creating consistent profits. As with any business, education and training are the first step toward long term success.

There is a lot of overlap among rule lists, and most of these lists aren’t worth much, particularly in cases where they comprise dozens of different rules. On reading these, one can conclude the writer of the list has made a glittering variety of errors that he believes he can circumvent if only he has a lengthy-enough document to follow.

I’ve got my own list, but it is short and sweet. Like all rules writers, I ignore some of them from time to time, and virtually every time I do, I regret it.

It has cost me a huge amount of money to formulate these “trading laws”, and I offer them up – as I do everything on this blog – for free, with the hope that it will help some of you. If one day I can follow these rules absolutely consistently, I’ll be a much richer trader for it. Behold:

Opening Bell - no new positions should be initiated in the first 30 minutes of any trading session. There are an astonishing number of pre-opening orders, and in my experience, I have found it better to let all the open bell excitement die away before getting into any new positions.

Advantage - only enter into a position which provides you a significant advantage of reward versus risk.

Sizing - position sizing must be consistent among instrument types irrespective of anticipated opportunity.

Stops - a stop price must be in place at all times for all positions.

Freshness - positions should be regularly updated for the sake of updated stops.

Exits - the only acceptable exit is either being stopped out of a position or reaching a target price which has a clear technical rationale, and even in cases of the latter, partial exits are preferable to outright closes.

Emotional Awareness - use emotional awareness to your advantage, understanding fear often accompanies reversals in your favor and hubris often accompanies reversals against your positions. My state of mind, when trading, will be carefree and fearless, and my total focus will be technical considerations and I will only trade what I see.

Following these rules consistently isn’t easy. But every year I get a little better at it, and every year I do better in my trading. I urge you to consider making these rules an important part of your trading life.

I think something like this:

What I’ve scribbled out above is an S&P which free-falls again to March’s lows (plus or minus a little bit). How would the different camps react to this?

• The bears would, of course, be delighted at first, but here’s the clincher – - I think the bears have been so battered for the past 7 weeks, that the moment the S&P gets anywhere close to the 780-800 range, they’re going to close out everything and engage in a big group hug. 780 is the number everyone is talking about. If the market simply keeps falling, the bears are going to be furious (and feel mighty cheated), since the easy and obvious take-profits point didn’t matter much. My point is that the bears will leave almost all the potential profits on the table.
• The bulls would be equally furious, too, because all their easy profits from the past 7 weeks – - - especially from the high-flying momentum stocks - – would go up in smoke. Their relief would come with a double-bottom, but frankly I think newer bulls would feel so betrayed by the market (again) that they would not be as enthusiastic to re-enter.

[by Tim Knight]

Schaeffer’s Option Play of the Day

Recommendation for Friday, April 24, 2009

IntercontinentalExchange (ICE)

Buy the IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) May 75 call (ICEEO). The option is currently offered at $10.70.

Commentary

IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) is a familiar name that we have traded before. The company, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates an Internet-based global electronic marketplace for trading futures and over-the-counter (OTC) commodities, and derivative financial products in the United States.

The stock has really picked up momentum during the past 2 months, rallying nearly 50 percent since the beginning of March. Although it climbed near the 90 level, the equity has pulled back nicely and is now trading above the 80 area. During the past week, the stock has been consolidating and is now hovering right at its rising 20-day moving average. This trendline provided support in March and early April, and we view this pullback as a good entry point for this short-term trade.

On top of its bright technical outlook, analysts remain skeptical of the stock. According to Zacks, 9 of the 12 analysts following IntercontinentalExchange rate it a “hold” or worse. This leaves the door wide open for upgrades in the near future. The shares’ performance has also earned a Zacks Rank of 2, which is the second-highest possible rating given in their proprietary ranking system.

Short sellers are heavily targeting the equity, as well. We have seen an increase of nearly 15 percent in this figure during the past month. If the stock rebounds, the bears could rush to cover their losses, propelling the shares to higher levels.

Exit Parameters

IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) is currently trading at $82.86. We recommend closing the position if the stock rises to the target price of $91.50, or falls to the recommended stop-loss price of $79.90. If neither price is reached, we recommend closing the position on Monday, May 4, 2009.

Trade Follow-up

The Peabody Energy (BTU) May 28 put (BTUQD) recommended on April 21 was closed yesterday because the stock hit its stop-loss price.

The Buckle (BKE) May 30 call (BKEEF) recommended on April 17 will be closed today as today is the recommeded time-stop date.

Actual trades are based on an auction market paradigm where a potential buyer bids a specific price for a stock and a potential seller asks a specific price for the stock. (Buying or selling at market means you will accept any ask price or bid price for the stock, respectively.) When the bid and ask prices match, a sale takes place on a first come first served basis if there are multiple bidders or askers at a given price.

The purpose of a stock exchange is to facilitate the exchange of securities between buyers and sellers, thus providing a marketplace (virtual or real). The exchanges provide real-time trading information on the listed securities, facilitating price discovery.

The New York Stock Exchange is a physical exchange, also referred to as a listed exchange — only stocks listed with the exchange may be traded. Orders enter by way of exchange members and flow down to a floor broker, who goes to the floor trading post specialist for that stock to trade the order. The specialist’s job is to match buy and sell orders using open outcry. 

If a spread exists, no trade immediately takes place–in this case the specialist should use his/her own resources (money or stock) to close the difference after his/her judged time. Once a trade has been made the details are reported on the “tape” and sent back to the brokerage firm, which then notifies the investor who placed the order. Although there is a significant amount of human contact in this process, computers play an important role, especially for so-called “program trading”.

The NASDAQ is a virtual listed exchange, where all of the trading is done over a computer network. The process is similar to the New York Stock Exchange. However, buyers and sellers are electronically matched. One or more NASDAQ market makers will always provide a bid and ask price at which they will always purchase or sell ‘their’ stock. 
The Paris Bourse, now part of Euronext, is an order-driven, electronic stock exchange. It was automated in the late 1980s. 

Prior to the 1980s, it consisted of an open outcry exchange. Stockbrokers met on the trading floor or the Palais Brongniart. In 1986, the CATS trading system was introduced, and the order matching process was fully automated.

From time to time, active trading (especially in large blocks of securities) have moved away from the ‘active’ exchanges. Securities firms, led by UBS AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group, already steer 12 percent of U.S. security trades away from the exchanges to their internal systems. That share probably will increase to 18 percent by 2010 as more investment banks bypass the NYSE and NASDAQ and pair buyers and sellers of securities themselves, according to data compiled by Boston-based Aite Group LLC, a brokerage-industry consultant[citation needed].

Now that computers have eliminated the need for trading floors like the Big Board’s, the balance of power in equity markets is shifting. By bringing more orders in-house, where clients can move big blocks of stock anonymously, brokers pay the exchanges less in fees and capture a bigger share of the $11 billion a year that institutional investors pay in trading commissions[citation needed].

History has shown that the price of shares and other assets is an important part of the dynamics of economic activity, and can influence or be an indicator of social mood. An economy where the stock market is on the rise is considered to be an up coming economy. In fact, the stock market is often considered the primary indicator of a country’s economic strength and development. Rising share prices, for instance, tend to be associated with increased business investment and vice versa. Share prices also affect the wealth of households and their consumption. Therefore, central banks tend to keep an eye on the control and behavior of the stock market and, in general, on the smooth operation of financial system functions. Financial stability is the raison d’être of central banks.

Exchanges also act as the clearinghouse for each transaction, meaning that they collect and deliver the shares, and guarantee payment to the seller of a security. This eliminates the risk to an individual buyer or seller that the counterparty could default on the transaction.

The smooth functioning of all these activities facilitates economic growth in that lower costs and enterprise risks promote the production of goods and services as well as employment. In this way the financial system contributes to increased prosperity.

Relation of the stock market to the modern financial system
The financial system in most western countries has undergone a remarkable transformation. One feature of this development is disintermediation. A portion of the funds involved in saving and financing flows directly to the financial markets instead of being routed via the traditional bank lending and deposit operations. The general public’s heightened interest in investing in the stock market, either directly or through mutual funds, has been an important component of this process. 

Statistics show that in recent decades shares have made up an increasingly large proportion of households’ financial assets in many countries. In the 1970s, in Sweden, deposit accounts and other very liquid assets with little risk made up almost 60 percent of households’ financial wealth, compared to less than 20 percent in the 2000s. The major part of this adjustment in financial portfolios has gone directly to shares but a good deal now takes the form of various kinds of institutional investment for groups of individuals, e.g., pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, insurance investment of premiums, etc. 

The trend towards forms of saving with a higher risk has been accentuated by new rules for most funds and insurance, permitting a higher proportion of shares to bonds. Similar tendencies are to be found in other industrialized countries. In all developed economic systems, such as the European Union, the United States, Japan and other developed nations, the trend has been the same: saving has moved away from traditional (government insured) bank deposits to more risky securities of one sort or another.

The stock market, individual investors, and financial risk
Riskier long-term saving requires that an individual possess the ability to manage the associated increased risks. Stock prices fluctuate widely, in marked contrast to the stability of (government insured) bank deposits or bonds. This is something that could affect not only the individual investor or household, but also the economy on a large scale. The following deals with some of the risks of the financial sector in general and the stock market in particular. This is certainly more important now that so many newcomers have entered the stock market, or have acquired other ‘risky’ investments (such as ‘investment’ property, i.e., real estate and collectables).

With each passing year, the noise level in the stock market rises. Television commentators, financial writers, analysts, and market strategists are all overtaking each other to get investors’ attention. At the same time, individual investors, immersed in chat rooms and message boards, are exchanging questionable and often misleading tips. Yet, despite all this available information, investors find it increasingly difficult to profit. Stock prices skyrocket with little reason, then plummet just as quickly, and people who have turned to investing for their children’s education and their own retirement become frightened. Sometimes there appears to be no rhyme or reason to the market, only folly.

This is a quote from the preface to a published biography about the long-term value-oriented stock investor Warren Buffett.[5] Buffett began his career with $100, and $105,000 from seven limited partners consisting of Buffett’s family and friends. Over the years he has built himself a multi-billion-dollar fortune. The quote illustrates some of what has been happening in the stock market during the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century.

The behavior of the stock market
From experience we know that investors may ‘temporarily’ move financial prices away from their long term aggregate price ‘trends’. (Positive or up trends are referred to as bull markets; negative or down trends are referred to as bear markets.) Over-reactions may occur—so that excessive optimism (euphoria) may drive prices unduly high or excessive pessimism may drive prices unduly low. New theoretical and empirical arguments have since been put forward against the notion that financial markets are ‘generally’ efficient (i.e., in the sense that stock prices in the aggregate tend to follow a Gaussian distribution).

According to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), only changes in fundamental factors, such as the outlook for margins, profits or dividends, ought to affect share prices beyond the short term, where random ‘noise’ in the system may prevail. (But this largely theoretic academic viewpoint—known as ‘hard’ EMH—also predicts that little or no trading should take place, contrary to fact, since prices are already at or near equilibrium, having priced in all public knowledge.) 

The ‘hard’ efficient-market hypothesis is sorely tested by such events as the stock market crash in 1987, when the Dow Jones index plummeted 22.6 percent—the largest-ever one-day fall in the United States. This event demonstrated that share prices can fall dramatically even though, to this day, it is impossible to fix a generally agreed upon definite cause: a thorough search failed to detect any ‘reasonable’ development that might have accounted for the crash. (But note that such events are predicted to occur strictly by chance , although very rarely.) 

It seems also to be the case more generally that many price movements (beyond that which are predicted to occur ‘randomly’) are not occasioned by new information; a study of the fifty largest one-day share price movements in the United States in the post-war period seems to confirm this.

However, a ‘soft’ EMH has emerged which does not require that prices remain at or near equilibrium, but only that market participants not be able to systematically profit from any momentary market ‘ inefficiencies’. Moreover, while EMH predicts that all price movement (in the absence of change in fundamental information) is random (i.e., non-trending), many studies have shown a marked tendency for the stock market to trend over time periods of weeks or longer. 

Various explanations for such large and apparently non-random price movements have been promulgated. For instance, some research has shown that changes in estimated risk, and the use of certain strategies, such as stop-loss limits and Value at Risk limits, theoretically could cause financial markets to overreact. But the best explanation seems to be that the distribution of stock market prices is non-Gaussian (in which case EMH, in any of its current forms, would not be strictly applicable).

Other research has shown that psychological factors may result in exaggerated (statistically anomalous) stock price movements (contrary to EMH which assumes such behaviors ‘cancel out’). Psychological research has demonstrated that people are predisposed to ‘seeing’ patterns, and often will perceive a pattern in what is, in fact, just noise. (Something like seeing familiar shapes in clouds or ink blots.) 

In the present context this means that a succession of good news items about a company may lead investors to overreact positively (unjustifiably driving the price up). A period of good returns also boosts the investor’s self-confidence, reducing his (psychological) risk threshold.

Another phenomenon—also from psychology—that works against an objective assessment is group thinking. As social animals, it is not easy to stick to an opinion that differs markedly from that of a majority of the group. An example with which one may be familiar is the reluctance to enter a restaurant that is empty; people generally prefer to have their opinion validated by those of others in the group.
In one paper the authors draw an analogy with gambling. 

In normal times the market behaves like a game of roulette; the probabilities are known and largely independent of the investment decisions of the different players. In times of market stress, however, the game becomes more like poker (herding behavior takes over). The players now must give heavy weight to the psychology of other investors and how they are likely to react psychologically.

The stock market, as any other business, is quite unforgiving of amateurs. Inexperienced investors rarely get the assistance and support they need. In the period running up to the 1987 crash, less than 1 percent of the analyst’s recommendations had been to sell (and even during the 2000 – 2002 bear market, the average did not rise above 5%). In the run up to 2000, the media amplified the general euphoria, with reports of rapidly rising share prices and the notion that large sums of money could be quickly earned in the so-called new economy stock market. (And later amplified the gloom which descended during the 2000 – 2002 bear market, so that by summer of 2002, predictions of a DOW average below 5000 were quite common.)

Irrational behavior
Sometimes the market seems to react irrationally to economic or financial news, even if that news is likely to have no real effect on the technical value of securities itself. But this may be more apparent than real, since often such news has been anticipated, and a counterreaction may occur if the news is better (or worse) than expected. Therefore, the stock market may be swayed in either direction by press releases, rumors, euphoria and mass panic; but generally only briefly, as more experienced investors (especially the hedge funds) quickly rally to take advantage of even the slightest, momentary hysteria.

Over the short-term, stocks and other securities can be battered or buoyed by any number of fast market-changing events, making the stock market behavior difficult to predict. Emotions can drive prices up and down, people are generally not as rational as they think, and the reasons for buying and selling are generally obscure. Behaviorists argue that investors often behave ‘irrationally’ when making investment decisions thereby incorrectly pricing securities, which causes market inefficiencies, which, in turn, are opportunities to make money. However, the whole notion of EMH is that these non-rational reactions to information cancel out, leaving the prices of stocks rationally determined.

Crashes
A stock market crash is often defined as a sharp dip in share prices of equities listed on the stock exchanges. In parallel with various economic factors, a reason for stock market crashes is also due to panic. Often, stock market crashes end speculative economic bubbles.

There have been famous stock market crashes that have ended in the loss of billions of dollars and wealth destruction on a massive scale. An increasing number of people are involved in the stock market, especially since the social security and retirement plans are being increasingly privatized and linked to stocks and bonds and other elements of the market. There have been a number of famous stock market crashes like the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the stock market crash of 1973–4, the Black Monday of 1987, the Dot-com bubble of 2000.

One of the most famous stock market crashes started October 24, 1929 on Black Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial lost 50% during this stock market crash. It was the beginning of the Great Depression. Another famous crash took place on October 19, 1987 – Black Monday. On Black Monday itself, the Dow Jones fell by 22.6% after completing a 5 year continuous rise in share prices. This event not only shook the USA, but quickly spread across the world. 

Thus, by the end of October, stock exchanges in Australia lost 41.8%, in Canada lost 22.5%, in Hong Kong lost 45.8%, and in Great Britain lost 26.4%. The names “Black Monday” and “Black Tuesday” are also used for October 28-29, 1929, which followed Terrible Thursday–the starting day of the stock market crash in 1929. The crash in 1987 raised some puzzles-–main news and events did not predict the catastrophe and visible reasons for the collapse were not identified. This event raised questions about many important assumptions of modern economics, namely, the theory of rational human conduct, the theory of market equilibrium and the hypothesis of market efficiency. 

For some time after the crash, trading in stock exchanges worldwide was halted, since the exchange computers did not perform well owing to enormous quantity of trades being received at one time. This halt in trading allowed the Federal Reserve system and central banks of other countries to take measures to control the spreading of worldwide financial crisis. In the United States the SEC introduced several new measures of control into the stock market in an attempt to prevent a re-occurrence of the events of Black Monday. 

Computer systems were upgraded in the stock exchanges to handle larger trading volumes in a more accurate and controlled manner. The SEC modified the margin requirements in an attempt to lower the volatility of common stocks, stock options and the futures market. The New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced the concept of a circuit breaker. The circuit breaker halts trading if the Dow declines a prescribed number of points for a prescribed amount of time.

The size of the world stock market is estimated at about $36.6 trillion US at the beginning of October 2008 . The total world derivatives market has been estimated at about $791 trillion face or nominal value, 11 times the size of the entire world economy. 

The value of the derivatives market, because it is stated in terms of notional values, cannot be directly compared to a stock or a fixed income security, which traditionally refers to an actual value. Moreover, the vast majority of derivatives ‘cancel’ each other out (i.e., a derivative ‘bet’ on an event occurring is offset by a comparable derivative ‘bet’ on the event not occurring.). 

Many such relatively illiquid securities are valued as marked to model, rather than an actual market price.)
The stocks are listed and traded on stock exchanges which are entities a corporation or mutual organization specialized in the business of bringing buyers and sellers of the organizations to a listing of stocks and securities together. 

The stock market in the United States includes the trading of all securities listed on the NYSE, the NASDAQ, the Amex, as well as on the many regional exchanges, e.g. OTCBB and Pink Sheets. European examples of stock exchanges include the London Stock Exchange, the Deutsche Börse and the Paris Bourse, now part of Euronext.

The rise of the institutional investor has brought with it some improvements in market operations. Thus, the government was responsible for “fixed” (and exorbitant) fees being markedly reduced for the ‘small’ investor, but only after the large institutions had managed to break the brokers’ solid front on fees. (They then went to ‘negotiated’ fees, but only for large institutions.

However, corporate governance (at least in the West) has been very much adversely affected by the rise of (largely ‘absentee’) institutional ‘owners’

Short selling
In short selling, the trader borrows stock (usually from his brokerage which holds its clients’ shares or its own shares on account to lend to short sellers) then sells it on the market, hoping for the price to fall. The trader eventually buys back the stock, making money if the price fell in the meantime or losing money if it rose. Exiting a short position by buying back the stock is called “covering a short position.” This strategy may also be used by unscrupulous traders to artificially lower the price of a stock. Hence most markets either prevent short selling or place restrictions on when and how a short sale can occur. The practice of naked shorting is illegal in most (but not all) stock markets.

Margin buying
In margin buying, the trader borrows money (at interest) to buy a stock and hopes for it to rise. Most industrialized countries have regulations that require that if the borrowing is based on collateral from other stocks the trader owns outright, it can be a maximum of a certain percentage of those other stocks’ value. In the United States, the margin requirements have been 50% for many years (that is, if you want to make a $1000 investment, you need to put up $500, and there is often a maintenance margin below the $500). 

A margin call is made if the total value of the investor’s account cannot support the loss of the trade. (Upon a decline in the value of the margined securities additional funds may be required to maintain the account’s equity, and with or without notice the margined security or any others within the account may be sold by the brokerage to protect its loan position. The investor is responsible for any shortfall following such forced sales.) Regulation of margin requirements (by the Federal Reserve) was implemented after the Crash of 1929. Before that, speculators typically only needed to put up as little as 10 percent (or even less) of the total investment represented by the stocks purchased. 

Other rules may include the prohibition of free-riding: putting in an order to buy stocks without paying initially (there is normally a three-day grace period for delivery of the stock), but then selling them (before the three-days are up) and using part of the proceeds to make the original payment (assuming that the value of the stocks has not declined in the interim).

Fundamental analysis refers to analyzing companies by their financial statements found in SEC Filings, business trends, general economic conditions, etc. 

Technical analysis studies price actions in markets through the use of charts and quantitative techniques to attempt to forecast price trends regardless of the company’s financial prospects. 

One example of a technical strategy is the Trend following method, used by John W. Henry and Ed Seykota, which uses price patterns, utilizes strict money management and is also rooted in risk control and diversification.

Additionally, many choose to invest via the index method. In this method, one holds a weighted or unweighted portfolio consisting of the entire stock market or some segment of the stock market (such as the S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000). The principal aim of this strategy is to maximize diversification, minimize taxes from too frequent trading, and ride the general trend of the stock market (which, in the U.S., has averaged nearly 10%/year, compounded annually, since World War II).